What Is Trump’s Current Position and Future in American Politics?
Trump is in a difficult political position because the central promises and political assets on which he built his appeal are beginning to collapse. These were the issues that helped him win votes and shaped the image he presented to the American public. They include the following:
1. Reducing inflation and improving economic conditions
This issue has been especially important to many Trump voters in this election cycle, particularly Hispanic voters and other immigrant workers. Immigrants, especially Hispanics, have traditionally tended to support Democrats. In the last election, however, Trump’s economic promises drew many of them toward the Republicans. With the war Trump has launched, fuel prices in the United States are rising significantly. This increase will soon be reflected in the prices of other consumer goods as well. As a result, many of Trump’s supporters are likely to distance themselves from him. Another factor alienating immigrants from Trump is the brutal and unlawful conduct of U.S. immigration authorities in arresting and deporting immigrants.
2. Reducing U.S. involvement in multiple wars
Trump was able to win many votes by promising to end “endless wars,” avoid starting a new war, and present himself as a self-styled “peace president.” In particular, Arab-origin immigrants and Muslim voters, who had traditionally supported Democrats, voted for Trump because of their dissatisfaction with Biden’s role in Israel’s genocide and because of Trump’s promise to end these wars. Many American nationalists, who wanted to end the enormous costs of America’s prolonged wars around the world, especially in the Middle East, were also drawn to Trump’s “America First” slogan. Now, after the start of the war with Iran, all of these promises have proved hollow. In American media, criticism of Trump’s foreign policy has intensified even among his supporters, officials, and close allies, with some arguing that U.S. foreign policy is now based on “Israel First.”
3. Creating jobs by increasing investment in the United States
Trump tried to build his political brand around attracting investment in two ways. First, through visits to the Arab Gulf states, he concluded agreements involving eye-catching figures for investment in the U.S. artificial intelligence sector. By repeatedly citing these numbers, he presented himself to his supporters as a master dealmaker and a skilled businessman. Yet now, following the enormous losses that the war against Iran has inflicted on Arab countries, most of them will no longer be able to provide the investment they had promised.
He also tried to use tariffs on imported goods to force companies to shift production to the United States and thereby create jobs. After each tariff agreement, he again presented himself as a skilled dealmaker and repeatedly spoke about the revenue this had generated for the United States. Recently, however, a U.S. court declared the tariffs imposed by Trump unlawful and ordered the revenue collected to be returned to the companies and countries of origin. After that ruling, various companies and countries submitted requests to U.S. courts to recover the tariffs they had paid to the United States. In addition, the tariffs effectively increased consumer prices in the United States because companies were forced to raise prices in proportion to the tariffs imposed on their goods.
Trump does not face a promising political future. All of these trends will work against him in the November 2026 midterm elections, and the Republicans are very likely to lose control of Congress. There is also a significant possibility that the Democrats could gain a majority in the Senate. The consequences for Trump would be severe:
Congress, as in the past, would no longer easily approve Trump’s budget bills or other decisions. It would also impose severe restrictions on his powers, particularly his war powers.
The likelihood of Trump’s impeachment would become very high.
If the Democrats also take control of the Senate, many of Trump’s nominations would either not be confirmed or would face serious challenges.
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