What Future Awaits Trump and the United States in International Politics?
Trump will ultimately withdraw from the war with Iran without achieving his objectives or securing any significant gain. Multiple reports indicate that Trump’s advisers and officials, including Joe Kent, the former U.S. counterterrorism chief, have urged him to find a way out of the war with Iran. Reports also suggest that the United States is seeking negotiations with Iran through various intermediaries, including Oman, France, Qatar, and even Russia. Polling further shows that support for the war is rapidly declining within Trump’s voter base, a form of pressure that weighs more heavily on him than any other.
After withdrawing from this war, Trump will seek a major foreign-policy victory that he can present to his supporters before the November 2026 midterm elections. It is unclear what he will do in this regard, but there is a strong possibility that he may move against Cuba, seek to expand control over Venezuela, or attempt to take control of Greenland.
Along this trajectory, the United States will also withdraw from the NATO alliance. In his recent statements, Trump has repeatedly expressed deep skepticism toward NATO. These statements will help pave the way for a U.S. withdrawal from the alliance. This, of course, had already been predicted by experts before he was elected president of the United States.
His recent statements also suggest that he does not intend to continue supporting Ukraine, although he has not said so directly. Since last year, after Trump took office, the United States has no longer provided direct military aid to Ukraine. Instead, Europe has been purchasing American-made weapons and transferring them to Ukraine. After the war with Iran ends, even this level of cooperation will decline. Ukraine, despite its own urgent needs, has also deployed specialized anti-drone units in the Gulf states. Through this move, Ukraine is trying to demonstrate goodwill to Trump in order to preserve U.S. support. In my view, however, Trump has already decided to abandon Europe and cut off support for Ukraine, and such measures will not change that decision.
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